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Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook indicated that interest rates should be gradually reduced to achieve a more neutral stance, driven by progress in inflation and a strong labor market. She noted that while the risks to employment and inflation goals are balanced, the timing and extent of rate cuts will rely on incoming economic data.
Euro-area banks are increasingly reliant on US dollar markets for liquidity, with their use of dollar repos nearly doubling to €1.6 trillion ($1.7 trillion) over the past two years. This reliance poses risks to financial stability, as dollar-denominated assets now represent 17% of their funding.
Inflation poses a significant threat to the real economy, particularly impacting industry and exports, according to the Reserve Bank of India's November bulletin. The October CPI inflation was unexpectedly high, following a concerning spike in September, highlighting the risks of complacency after sub-target outcomes in July and August. Urban consumption demand and corporate earnings are already feeling the effects, raising alarms about unchecked inflation's potential consequences.
Germany has the fiscal capacity to increase spending to bolster its struggling economy, according to European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos. He emphasized that this financial flexibility sets Germany apart from other countries, presenting a significant advantage for the future.
Iceland’s central bank governor, Asgeir Jonsson, announced a significant half-point key rate cut, the largest in over three years, to alleviate economic restrictions following a period of overheating. He indicated that the pace of easing may slow next year, as the Atlantic economy shows resilience despite high borrowing costs in western Europe, with stagnation anticipated for 2024.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has committed to ensuring that minimum wage increases will surpass inflation in 2025, aiming to protect workers" purchasing power amid ongoing price pressures. These wage adjustments are expected to significantly influence inflation rates, with hopes for a measured increase that aligns with the central bank"s forecast of a 21% inflation rate by year-end.
Turkey"s central bank is expected to maintain its main interest rate at 50% for the eighth consecutive month, with a potential shift towards easing as early as December. Economists anticipate that while the rate will remain unchanged, the accompanying statement may hint at an upcoming rate cut.
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that interest rates are set to decrease further, but cautioned against hastening the process due to uncertainties such as rising trade tensions and global conflicts. He emphasized the need for extreme prudence as the monetary policy stance is adjusted in the coming months and quarters.
The European Central Bank warns that rising global trade tensions pose risks to the euro zone"s financial stability, with weak growth now a greater concern than high inflation. Despite a recent growth uptick, uncertainties from geopolitical issues and potential U.S. tariffs could further strain the economy. ECB officials highlight fragile consumer activity and rising sovereign debt costs as additional challenges, suggesting a possible sharp reversal in market sentiment due to high asset valuations.
The Swiss property market remains robust, with house prices rising by 3.8% over the past year and 8.9% over two years, contrasting sharply with declines in Germany and France. Interest rate cuts have made financing cheaper, fueling demand, particularly for holiday apartments in mountain regions, where prices surged by 14% last year. However, the ongoing housing shortage poses challenges for locals and seasonal workers, as rental prices continue to outpace wages.
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